I am fearful we will be facing an oncoming tsunami of mass shootings. Why? Because of the new and untreated mental health issues and financial strain that have been festering in last year’s pandemic lockdown.

Mass shootings, which had become far less frequent in 2020, have come roaring back. Several weeks have passed since the three Atlanta-area spa shootings claimed the lives of eight people, and in that time at least 20 other mass shootings have taken place. The incidents have stretched from California to Washington, DC, and many have left multiple victims dead. Mass shootings, defined as four or more people shot and killed in a public setting (not including gang violence) were down to almost zero in 2020. A key factor why there were no mass shootings for about a year, between March 2020 and March 2021, was the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of the settings where mass shootings typically occur — workplaces, schools, churches, shopping centers — had either shut down or sharply reduced their capacity.

Why the surge now? I am fearful we will be facing an oncoming tsunami of mass shootings. Why? Because of the new and untreated mental health issues and financial strain that have been festering in last year’s pandemic lockdown. 

I was a member of Orange County, California’s school threat assessment team, and I have conducted hundreds of threat assessments. I now train others to do the same in their communities. The path to violence has many dimensions, and one of the most important ones is the presence of stressors.

In June of 2018, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, U.S. Department of Justice published what they called their Phase ...